uslistings.org Miniblog

Why Do Oil Shocks No Longer Kill The U.S. Economy?

For decades, an oil shock was basically the economic equivalent of someone pulling the fire alarm in America. Prices jumped, households spent more on petrol, firms paid more to keep the lights on, and recession often lurked just behind it. Not now.

The big shift is brutally simple: the US used to be a vast oil importer; now it is a net exporter. Thanks to the shale boom, crude production climbed from about 5 million barrels a day in the late 2000s to nearly 14 million by 2025. Net imports collapsed, and by 2019 the country had crossed the line.

That changes the maths. When global supply is suddenly squeezed and oil prices leap, Americans still feel pain at the pump. But the country also makes more money. Oil producers gain, investment rises, and those gains spill outwards into manufacturing, construction, services and trade. Even jobs outside mining have risen in both oil-producing and non-oil states after such shocks.

Researchers point to the contrast between the old era and the new one. From the 1973 embargo through the early 2000s, big oil disruptions were regularly followed by recessions. Yet the 2011 Libya and Arab Spring shock, and the 2022 surge after Russia invaded Ukraine, did not tip the US into downturn.

Inflation still bites. But oil shocks no longer automatically throttle American growth; in some cases, they now give it a nudge.

Posted on 26 September 2026

The Fed Hiked Rates. The Markets Shrugged.

The Federal Reserve finally pulled the trigger, lifting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase in more than three years. Sounds dramatic. Cue the grave music. Except the markets looked up, blinked, and carried on chewing.

That was the real signal.

Traders had already all but pencilled in a quarter-point move, so the decision itself landed with the force of a memo everyone had already read. At first, the old choreography played out: the dollar pushed higher, gold slipped, shares wobbled. Then the script went off-road. US equities, especially tech stocks, bounced hard the next day. Gold clawed back its losses and moved above its pre-announcement level. Crypto, rather than folding, stayed oddly steady.

That tells you something important. Markets do not react to central bank theatre alone; they react to surprise, scale and credibility. And this hike, while symbolically important, was hardly brutal set against sticky inflation, high energy costs, geopolitical tension and a mountain of debt.

The unanimity mattered too. All 12 voting members backed the move. No public push for a bigger 50-basis-point rise. That helped reinforce the idea that the Fed is tightening, yes, but not necessarily marching into an all-out assault.

So the story was not the rate rise. It was the shrug. Markets were basically saying: we heard you months ago.
Posted on 21 September 2026

The Most Chilling Number In Anthropic's Forecast Isn't Growth - It's 45 Cents

Anthropic’s headline number is seductive: in its most extreme 2030 scenario, the US economy grows 15.4% a year, enough to double roughly every 4.5 years. Big number. Shiny number. The colder number is 45 cents.

That is the share of national income going to workers in the harshest version of the forecast, down from about 60 cents today. Owners take 54 cents. The pie gets fatter; the people slicing it do better than the people baking it.

The model tracks tasks, not job titles. A nurse still comforts patients and does the human work no machine can fake, but admin tasks, instructions and ordering could be swallowed whole. Stretch that logic across offices, sales teams, management and professional roles, and the damage lands hardest on knowledge workers.

Anthropic sketches three futures. In the mild one, tech touches 4% of work, growth edges from 2% to 2.4%, and unemployment barely moves from 3.8% to 3.9%. In the middle case, 12% of work is affected, growth hits 5.4%, and unemployment rises to 4.6%. In the most severe case, 30% of tasks are hit, about half of knowledge work is automated, overall unemployment reaches 11.9%, and joblessness among knowledge workers climbs to 17.9%.

Average wages still rise overall. That is the trick. Averages can grin while whole professions bleed.

Posted on 16 September 2026

The First Payroll Number Moves Markets Before The Real Count Even Arrives

On US jobs day, the first payroll figure bursts out like a headmaster’s cane crack: sharp, sudden, and enough to make markets jump. Traders pounce, economists squint, television anchors nod gravely. Yet that neat little number is only the opening guess.

There is a practical reason for this. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its first estimate about three weeks after the month ends, long before every employer has filed in. Later reports revise the previous two months as more responses trickle in, and once a year comes the serious reckoning: a benchmark against much fuller employment records, mostly from unemployment-insurance tax filings.

That check can be a bruiser. Payrolls for March 2025 were eventually marked down by 862,000 jobs, or 0.5% of employment, far larger than the historical average annual benchmark revision of about 0.2% in absolute terms. No wonder investors ask if the early number is worth the fuss.

It is. Speed matters. Policymakers and markets cannot wait for a perfect count polished months later.

But the first figure should be treated like a snapshot taken through a smudged window, not a finished portrait in a gilt frame. Revisions can go up as well as down: the August 2026 report added 55,000 jobs to June and July combined, while the preliminary March 2026 benchmark adjustment was a modest 79,000 lower, or 0.1%.

The trouble is not the quick estimate. It is pretending the first whisper is the final word.

Posted on 9 September 2026

Why Are So Many Working Americans Still Functionally Unemployed?

America keeps bragging about a 4.1% unemployment rate, which is adorable if you enjoy numbers that leave out the part where people still can’t pay rent.

A newer measure from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity says 24.9% of US workers were “functionally unemployed” in July. That group includes people out of work and searching, but also those stuck in part-time jobs they didn’t want and workers earning under $26,000 a year before tax. So yes, technically employed. Also technically struggling.

That figure has risen for four straight months, even though it’s a touch lower than December’s 25.2%. Gene Ludwig argues that if labour-force participation is falling while functional unemployment rises, the market may be weaker than the headline number suggests. Fair point. A healthy jobs market should pull people in, not wear them down.

Not everyone buys this broader measure. Gregory Daco at EY-Parthenon says a jobless rate in the 20% range doesn’t match what the wider economy is showing. He’s not wrong to be cautious.

Still, the strain is real. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, against expectations of growth. Inflation ran at 3.4%, while wages rose 3.2%, meaning pay is still losing ground in real terms. And when incomes stall, spending slows. Since consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of the US economy, that’s not a small crack. It’s the sort that spreads.

Posted on 4 September 2026

The Richest Companies On Earth Are Now Bidding Against You For Land, Power, And Water

America’s data-centre boom has stopped being a niche business story and started looking like a national stress test. The scale is absurd. This year, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta and Oracle are expected to spend more than $750 billion on capital projects, up 67% on last year, with roughly three-quarters of that aimed at AI infrastructure.

That money doesn’t just buy chips. It buys land, power, water, turbines, cooling equipment and influence. If you’re a local authority, a manufacturer or a household trying to secure scarce resources, you’re no longer competing with a rival firm down the road. You’re bidding against some of the richest companies on Earth.

The strain on electricity is especially stark. Utilities now expect peak demand growth in the 2030s to be six times higher than forecasts from only three years ago, largely because of data centres. An ageing grid was not built for this sort of appetite.

No wonder the backlash is spreading. Across the United States, officials who once welcomed these projects are now reaching for pauses, tighter rules and outright freezes. In Pennsylvania, new restrictions have been imposed. In Michigan, a one-year moratorium has been backed. In Texas, new projects have been put on ice.

These buildings are no longer just warehouses full of servers. They are flashpoints in a bigger argument about jobs, infrastructure, energy use, water and who gets first call on finite essentials. Posted on 29 August 2026

Why Did Heavy-Duty Trucks Blow Up The U.S.-Canada Trade Talks?

Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada did not collapse over some abstract policy squabble. They blew up over trucks. Specifically, Canada wanted the tariff treatment offered for light vehicles to cover medium- and heavy-duty models too. The U.S. refused, and that hit a nerve because it would leave Canadian-built workhorses such as Ford’s F-350, F-450 and F-550, along with some GM Silverado models, at a serious disadvantage.

That dispute landed in a much bigger mess. Washington is pressing ahead with 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods worth about $20 billion, including wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing, fishing gear and hockey kit. Canada is now answering with matching tariffs on U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, electronics and more, starting on 8 September.

Mark Carney said the U.S. introduced last-minute demands that were commercially unacceptable and even sought limits on Canada’s ability to strike other trade deals. He also said there were proposals touching culture, language and sovereignty.

This is not a minor lovers’ spat with a passive-aggressive text. It puts fresh strain on the North American trade pact and raises the risk of job losses in sectors already looking wobbly, including softwood lumber and wine. For two economies tied this closely together, heavy-duty trucks turned out to be one very expensive sticking point.

Posted on 23 August 2026

No Port, No Reset: The Hidden Breaking Point On The USS Abraham Lincoln

A warship can look invulnerable from a distance. Up close, endurance is made of pipes, sleep, routine and the thin private thread by which a person holds steady.

The USS Abraham Lincoln has now spent more than 250 straight days at sea, nearing nine months since leaving San Diego on 21 November. It was first meant for the Pacific, then diverted to the Middle East as the US-Israel war with Iran widened. Since then, deployment extensions and the absence of a real port call have become the story.

Reports from Navy Times, Stars and Stripes and the Wall Street Journal describe water shortages, plumbing troubles, strained supplies, low morale and multiple attempts by sailors to go overboard. The carrier holds about 5,000 people. On a ship that size, even small breakdowns spread through daily life quickly.

Navy officials say crew welfare remains a priority, deny any confirmed rise in reported suicidal thinking or attempts, and insist the ship still has clean water, working air conditioning and adequate food. Defence secretary Pete Hegseth has also rejected the bleakest accounts.

Even so, retired naval officers and military health specialists warn that the deeper problem is cumulative strain. A carrier is a compressed, hazardous world. Usually there are port visits, a pause, a reset. Here, veterans say, there has been none. And uncertainty, more than hardship alone, is what can quietly break people.

Posted on 16 August 2026

The "C-Shaped Economy" May Be Wall Street's Most Convenient New Label

Wall Street does love a fresh letter. First the economy was K-shaped: one line soaring for wealthier households, the other trudging along for everyone else. Now Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that picture is out of date, arguing the US has become “C-shaped” because pay at the bottom end is rising faster than at the top.

There is a grain of truth there. He pointed to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing year-on-year wage growth of 5.5% for the lowest-paid quarter of workers, roughly three times the pace for the highest-paid quarter. Some bank data also suggests spending gaps between income groups have narrowed a little.

But that is not the same as a happy reunion. Economists including Peter Orszag and Deon Strickland say it is too early to bury the K. Wage growth overall has cooled to 3.2%, which sits below inflation at 3.4%, so many households are still going backwards in real terms. If your pay packet grows but the petrol station and supermarket grow faster, the alphabet offers limited comfort.

Then there is the top half of the story. Shares remain strong, which mainly boosts richer households. Credit card debt is up 60% on five years ago. Lower-income spending has improved, yes, but it may be leaning on borrowed money.

So perhaps this is not a C at all. More a slightly less rude K, with better manners and the same old advantage at the top.

Posted on 13 August 2026

Why Did More Than Two Million Americans Quietly Leave The Workforce?

More than two million Americans have slipped out of the workforce since November, and that matters more than one ugly headline number. July alone saw the US economy lose 23,000 jobs when economists had expected an 83,000 gain. Then came the gut punch: payroll estimates for May and June were cut by another 103,000.

That is not a blip. It is momentum going in reverse.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, but that figure flatters the picture if people are no longer looking for work. Labour force participation fell to its lowest point since February 2021. In plain English: people are not just struggling to find jobs; many appear to be giving up on the search.

Pay is not helping. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in July and 3.2% over the year, below inflation at 3.5%. So even workers who stay employed are losing ground. That helps explain why households feel squeezed, especially with petrol still around $4.04 a gallon, up 36% since late February.

Some sectors took clear hits: local education, leisure and hospitality, retail and finance all shrank. Health care, construction and manufacturing added jobs, but not enough to offset the broader slowdown.

Investors cheered because weaker hiring may reduce the chances of a rate rise. Workers will not be celebrating. Posted on 12 August 2026

Can a Fed Chair Cut Rates Without Unleashing a Bigger Inflation Mess?

Cutting rates during a downturn sounds simple, right up until inflation barges back into the room wearing wet boots. That is the trap any Fed chair would face if the US economy suddenly lurched off course.

Kevin Warsh, often mentioned as a possible future Federal Reserve leader, would inherit exactly that kind of headache. Markets can look serene for ages, then lose their minds by Tuesday lunch. A slump in tech shares tied to the artificial intelligence boom, a jump in oil prices, or a geopolitical shock could all hit growth fast. And markets have a habit of pricing in calm as if chaos has gone out of business.

If the economy weakens, rate cuts would be the obvious support tool. Cheaper borrowing can steady spending, hiring and investment. But if inflation is still running hot, especially after an energy spike, cutting too soon risks turning a slowdown into a bigger price problem. That is the central banking version of trying to put out a chip-pan fire with a glass of prosecco.

Keep rates high, though, and the damage can spread. Businesses pull back, consumers tighten up, confidence sinks.

That is why the real exam for a Fed chair is not during tidy periods of growth. It is the ugly bit, when volatility returns and every option looks mildly terrible. The job is not to assume shocks will not happen. It is to be ready when they do.

Posted on 3 August 2026

Why Does America Spend More On Debt Interest Than Defense?

America now spends more servicing its debt than it does on defence because the debt itself has become enormous and interest rates are no longer negligible. By July 2026, federal debt stands at about $39.6 trillion and is still rising by roughly $5 billion a day. That would be alarming enough on its own. The real shock is the bill for carrying it.

Net interest is set to top $1 trillion in 2026, absorbing around 14 to 15 per cent of federal spending. In plain English, a large slice of tax revenue disappears before a single pound-equivalent is spent on pensions, healthcare, roads, veterans or the military. Defence is visible. Interest is silent. But silence can be expensive.

The arithmetic is brutal. Last fiscal year, Washington spent $7.01 trillion and brought in $5.23 trillion, leaving a $1.78 trillion gap. That shortfall gets added to the pile, and the pile generates more interest. It is the fiscal version of living on a credit card while insisting the next pay rise will sort everything out.

This is why the problem is bigger than any single tax change or growth plan. Official forecasts still show deficits near $2 trillion a year and debt heading towards 120 per cent of GDP within a decade. America does not have a defence-spending problem so much as a compounding-maths problem.

Posted on 29 July 2026

Trump's New Tariffs May Be Headed For Another Supreme Court Collision

Donald Trump has rolled out a new batch of tariffs on more than 80 countries, including the UK, EU states, Canada, Mexico, China, India and Australia. Very him, isn’t it? The old 10% global tariff expired just after midnight on Friday. In comes a replacement: rates of 10% or 12.5%, this time dressed up under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The official line is forced labour. US trade representative Jamieson Greer says America has banned imports made that way for decades, and trading partners should match that standard. Fair enough as a slogan. The snag is the law.

Earlier this year, the US supreme court ruled 6-3 that broad peacetime tariff-making power sits with Congress, not the president. Trump then tried a temporary workaround under another statute. That has now run out. So here we are again, with another legal route and another looming argument over who actually gets to set tariff policy. Like two blokes arguing over the remote, except the remote is the global economy.

Several allies say the measures are baseless or baffling, and legal experts are already warning the court may swat them down as another presidential overreach. Meanwhile, many Americans say tariffs have pushed up prices, even as officials insist they have not. One thing is clear: this row may be heading back to the judges. Posted on 24 July 2026

Why Did The World Cup Barely Move America's Economic Needle?

The World Cup brought noise, colour and packed stands, but in the United States it barely made the economic giant blink.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says the tournament has been a macro sideshow rather than a serious growth story. The key reason is simple: fans spent money, but much of it appears to have been money they would have spent somewhere else anyway. Card data from Bloomberg Second Measure show no clear rise in overall consumer spending since the competition kicked off in mid-June. Even food, drink and accommodation, the usual suspects for a sporting boom, have often trailed last year’s levels.

Other real-time measures tell much the same tale. Passenger numbers through airport security, hotel occupancy and Homebase employment figures have not pointed to a broad lift in activity. There should be a short-lived bump from match tickets, with Pantheon estimating spectator sports could add around 0.05 to 0.1 percentage points to personal consumption expenditures in June. But spectator sports make up only about 0.2% of consumer spending, so the effect on GDP is tiny.

Inflation looks similarly unmoved. Some host cities saw pricier hotel rooms, but cheaper air fares may offset part of that.

In a vast economy like America’s, even a global football circus can end up looking like a pea fired at an elephant.

Posted on 14 July 2026

What Happens If America Becomes A One-Trick AI Economy?

America may be telling itself a comforting story: spend lavishly on data centres, chips and power, and growth will take care of the deficit. That story is not wrong. It is just incomplete.

The buildout is enormous. By the end of this year, spending tied to this sector is expected to hit an annualised $800 billion and account for about 3.3 percentage points of capital expenditure growth in 2026. But the direct lift to measured US GDP is far smaller, around 0.1%, or 0.3% on a broader basis, because much of the hardware is imported from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Those dollars do not stay home.

That does not mean the boom is hollow. The domestic side is real: construction, utilities, transmission upgrades, wages, and local economies clustering around server farms. A fuller reading may put the footprint nearer 0.7% to 0.9% of GDP. The problem is concentration. If one buildout is carrying roughly three-quarters of growth, America starts to look less like a diversified economy and more like a bet placed on a single number.

The real cure for debt is not spending but productivity. If these tools make healthcare, logistics, finance and software work better, the payoff will be broad and durable. If adoption lags while debt-fuelled capex keeps racing ahead, the reversal could be brutal, with layoffs, stranded projects and regional pain arriving all at once.

America can survive being obsessed. A one-trick economy is harder to survive. Posted on 10 July 2026

America Turns 250 Under Fireworks, Heat Warnings, and a Search for Common Ground

America is throwing itself a 250th birthday party, and naturally the weather has chosen menace.

Celebrations marking the nation’s break from Great Britain accelerate Friday, with much of the Midwest and East Coast under dangerous, possibly record-setting heat. Officials are urging people headed to events to hydrate, find air conditioning when needed, and use added cooling stations, water access, and medical support.

Donald Trump is set to travel to South Dakota for a speech and fireworks at Mount Rushmore on Friday, then speak again Saturday at the National Mall in Washington ahead of what organizers are calling an unusually large fireworks display.

New York City is adding a midnight Times Square ball drop to welcome July 4, borrowing New Year’s Eve theater for the holiday. Across the country, the weekend will culminate Saturday with fireworks, cookouts, and block parties.

The heat is already reshaping plans. In Washington, the public was barred from a Thursday rehearsal for the Capitol Fourth concert, and the Friday performance could still be canceled.

The anniversary is also prompting reflection on national identity. An April AP-NORC survey found about 4 in 10 U.S. adults feel proud about the 250th anniversary, while roughly 3 in 10 feel excited.

In Topeka, Kansas, fireworks seller and auto technician Joe Fuqua-Bejarano pointed to resilience and unity. In Cambridge, Massachusetts, Christina Zhou said she was focusing on local life and what feels personally within reach.

Posted on 3 July 2026

A Holiday Weekend Heat Dome Puts Millions on Alert

America is about to spend its holiday weekend inside a giant atmospheric casserole dish.

A long-lasting heatwave is building from the central US to the East Coast, with the worst of it arriving just before the Fourth of July. As of Tuesday, the National Weather Service had placed about 120 million people under extreme heat warnings, and by Thursday roughly 250 million are expected to face dangerous heat levels.

The culprit is a heat dome, that rude sky-lid trapping hot air in place. Forecasters expect the most intense conditions to peak first in the Midwest and Mississippi Valley on Thursday, then slide into the Ohio Valley and the East Coast through the holiday weekend.

Actual temperatures are forecast to run from 95F to 105F, but humidity will push the heat index to 100F-115F. Some daily records should fall on Thursday and Friday, with a few monthly and all-time marks also at risk. Officials are urging people to stay hydrated, avoid extended outdoor time and find air conditioning or cooling centres.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has activated a heat emergency plan, opening hundreds of cooling centres on Wednesday. Detroit has opened a dozen air-conditioned recreation centres as temperatures there could hit 100F.

The heat is also complicating World Cup events in cities including Atlanta, Philadelphia, Houston, Arlington and Toronto, where dangerous heat indexes may affect fans and play. Canada is also sweltering, with Ontario expecting up to 37C and orange heat warnings in effect.

Posted on 1 July 2026

Trump Freezes Housing Bill as Iran Row Erupts at Capitol Lunch

Washington produced one of its usual reassuring displays of adult governance on Wednesday: a president shelving a housing measure that had sailed through both chambers, then rowing with a senator over Iran at lunch.

Donald Trump pulled a planned signing ceremony for the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, despite the stage and podium already being set, and said he would not approve it unless Congress first passed the Save America Act, a voting measure that tightens ID rules and restricts mail voting. He also tied renewal of Fisa, which expired earlier this month, to the same bill.

That left matters stuck. The House approved the voting bill in February, but it lacks a route through the Senate because opponents can block it under the 60-vote threshold.

At the Capitol luncheon, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana clashed with Trump after the president challenged support for a war powers resolution. Cassidy had joined three other senators and opponents a day earlier to back limits on any renewed hostilities with Iran. He pressed for fuller briefings, noting the conflict had stretched from an expected four weeks to four months without meeting US aims. Trump raised his voice and invoked Cassidy’s recent re-election defeat; Cassidy admitted losing his temper before sitting down.

The meeting resolved little. Thom Tillis and John Kennedy answered questions with sarcasm. Trump called it great, while conceding he did not like a few people in the room. Posted on 26 June 2026

Housing Bill Shelved as Trump Ties Signature to SAVE America Act

Washington blinked under the hard white lights Wednesday when President Donald Trump called off a White House event to sign a bipartisan housing-affordability measure the administration had earlier praised as one of the most consequential housing bills in years.

He said the ceremony would wait until Congress passes the SAVE America Act, which he labeled a national emergency. The reversal caught lawmakers off guard after the White House had framed the housing package as proof of its pledge to cut housing costs and widen the path to homeownership. The bill is designed to expand housing supply and bring prices within reach.

The snag is that the SAVE America Act has nowhere near the same runway. It would require photo ID for voting in federal elections, documentary proof of citizenship at registration, and a copy of identification with absentee ballots. Citizenship is already required, and the Bipartisan Policy Center says non-citizen voting in federal races is rare.

The House approved the measure in February, 218-213, with one member crossing over to back it. In the Senate, it is unlikely to reach the 60 votes needed. Trump responded by urging an end to the filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has repeatedly rejected that path.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he wants to try folding the measure into a third budget reconciliation bill, though such bills are limited to budget matters and the Senate parliamentarian has already ruled this one out. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna said reconciliation will not work. Posted on 25 June 2026

Wizards Bet Big on AJ Dybantsa at No. 1 in 2026 NBA Draft

Washington finally did the extremely Washington thing of hoping one very tall teenager can change the mood lighting.

With the No. 1 pick in Tuesday’s 2026 NBA Draft, the Wizards selected AJ Dybantsa, the 19-year-old forward who spent one season at BYU turning college defenses into cautionary tales. Dybantsa, listed here at 6ft 9in (2.06m), put up 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists across 35 starts in 2025-26, then arrived at the draft as the obvious headliner: huge frame, polished scoring, and the kind of résumé that suggests he has been preparing for this since middle school.

The leap is quick but not exactly reckless. Before BYU, Dybantsa already had a decorated youth career, including leading the United States to the 2025 FIBA Under-19 World Cup and taking MVP honors there. After being picked, he described the moment as meaningful but also as only one step, emphasizing the work, discipline and sacrifices behind it.

At No. 2, Utah took Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, a 6ft 6in scorer who averaged 20.2 points in his lone college season and projects as a clean backcourt fit next to Keyonte George as the Jazz try to recover from a 22-60 year.

Memphis picked Cameron Boozer third. He is the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer.

Posted on 24 June 2026

Seven Charged in Foiled Plot Against White House UFC Event

The strangest modern detail may be that a combat-sports spectacle on the White House South Lawn became, for a small encrypted cluster of men with apocalyptic fantasies, the imagined stage for national rupture.

Federal authorities have now arrested two additional suspects tied to the alleged plan to attack President Donald Trump’s June 14 UFC event. William Lee Spartacus Falkner, of Belfair, Washington, was arrested Friday and charged in the Western District of Washington with conspiracy to commit murder. Jordan W. Rincker, 28, was arrested Sunday in Missouri on the same charge. Neither has entered a plea; court records do not show an attorney for Rincker, and Falkner’s appointed lawyer did not respond Monday.

The case surfaced after the mother of 19-year-old Tycen Proper, of Ohio, alerted police over recent gun purchases and online activity. Investigators say Proper described a group seeking revolution by targeting government figures, with a plan to send explosive drones into the crowd and shoot people fleeing the chaos. He faces firearms charges and other counts, including attempted murder of a U.S. officer or employee.

Court records describe about 20 participants exchanging encrypted messages, maps, aerial images, escape ideas, and safe-house plans. Officials recovered high-powered guns from several suspects. Prosecutors say Rincker funneled cash and accepted weapons, a computer, a 3D printer, and other items to make drone parts, though he later claimed he wanted the printer for crafts. Falkner allegedly discussed drone operation, explosives, and tactics, then texted after the arrests that the work trip was canceled because his boss had been picked up.

Seven people are now known to face federal charges. The documents also suggest the group was still trying to obtain explosive-capable drone equipment when the plot was stopped. Posted on 23 June 2026

How the U.S. and Iran Could Still Meet at the 2026 World Cup

A United States-Iran meeting at the 2026 World Cup is still on the board. It’s one of those bracket possibilities that feels both mathematical and electric: not likely by default, but very real if the standings line up.

One route arrives immediately in the knockout stage. If the USMNT finishes second in Group D and Iran also lands second in Group G, the teams would meet in the Round of 32 in Arlington, Texas, on July 3. Two runners-up walk into Texas; only one walks out. Tournaments are efficient that way.

The other path takes longer. If the United States wins Group D, and Iran wins Group G, and both then survive their Round of 32 games, they would face each other in the Round of 16 in Seattle on July 6. That version requires more success, which is nice because success tends to be cooperative with suspense.

Any match between the countries would carry unusual weight because of the recent armed conflict and the broader strain surrounding the relationship. The logistics are already tense. U.S. authorities have required Iran’s team to return to its base camp in Tijuana, Mexico, immediately after matches because of national security concerns.

So the matchup remains hypothetical. But in a World Cup, hypothetical is just reality wearing a draw sheet. Posted on 22 June 2026

United States Tops Group D After 2-0 Win Over Australia

Seattle had the agreeable air of a town watching a washing machine complete a very competent spin cycle as the United States beat Australia 2-0 on Friday and marched into the World Cup knockout round without Christian Pulisic.

Pulisic, the AC Milan forward with 33 goals in 87 U.S. appearances, missed the match with a calf injury. In older American sides, that sort of absence might have caused the team to wobble like a pub table with one leg on a beer mat. This one simply carried on. When Paraguay then beat Turkey 1-0 early Saturday, the U.S. finished top of Group D.

That means a round-of-32 game on July 1 in Santa Clara, California, against a third-place finisher.

The opening goal arrived in the 11th minute. Folarin Balogun tore down the left and sent a ball toward Ricardo Pepi, starting for Pulisic. It never reached him, instead glancing off Australia defender Cameron Burgess for an own goal.

The second came in the 43rd, all elbows and geometry. Alex Freeman, 21, the squad’s youngest player and son of former NFL receiver Antonio Freeman, headed in after Sergiño Dest’s shot was deflected. Video review confirmed it as Freeman’s first World Cup goal.

The U.S. has now won back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time since 1930 and scored six goals, one short of its tournament record. Mauricio Pochettino’s side looks deeper, sturdier and rather less dependent on one bright star than before.

Posted on 20 June 2026

Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Puts Style, Inflation and Rates Under the Microscope

Kevin Warsh takes charge of his first Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday with markets peering at him like ducks at a trombone. Since his late-January nomination, the central puzzle has been whether he will lift rates to smother inflation or trim them, as Donald Trump had long urged.

The likeliest first move is no move at all: the Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate near 3.6%, where it has sat since December. Inflation, now 4.2% and at a three-year high, has stiffened the furniture. Hiring has also picked up since the start of the year, weakening the case for cuts. Meanwhile, the 12-member rate-setting committee remains divided, including former chair Jerome Powell, over whether the next step should be an increase or no change.

Oil prices have dropped after an initial U.S.-Iran deal to end their war, which could eventually ease price pressures, though the durability of any agreement is uncertain.

Economists expect a shift in tone: language hinting at a future cut may disappear, replaced by something more even-handed. Updated projections may show no rate cuts in 2026, after March forecasts penciled in one this year, with perhaps one or two cuts next year.

Warsh is also expected to alter the Fed’s style — fewer speeches, more private debate, less chatter about daily data, and greater focus on broader forces such as AI.

Posted on 16 June 2026

World Cup Rush Lifts US Hospitality Hiring as Costs Keep Rising

America added 172,000 jobs in May, with hiring strongest in leisure and hospitality as pubs, bars and restaurants prepared for this summer’s World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Mexico and Canada. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said leisure and hospitality payrolls rose by 70,000, far above the prior year’s average monthly gain of 14,000. Food and drink businesses alone accounted for 48,000 of those jobs. Local government added 55,000 positions and healthcare 35,000; gains also appeared in social work and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Financial services lost 22,000 jobs in May and are down 105,000 from their peak last May.

In downtown New York City, Red Lion owner Rehan Alam has taken on seven extra bartenders, installed seven new TVs and brought in sound engineers ahead of the tournament, expecting crowds larger than those seen during the Qatar World Cup, especially with matches in nearby New Jersey. He also pointed to sharply higher costs, from energy to supplier bills, linked to the effects of the US-Israel war with Iran.

Hiring again beat forecasts of 105,000, and March-April job totals were revised up by 93,000. Yet the wider World Cup windfall remains uncertain: hotels report sluggish bookings, some fans say prices are prohibitive, and a $1,000 ticket for the US-Paraguay match drew notice. Wages rose 3.4% over the year, below inflation at 3.8%, as energy shocks tied to the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz continue to strain household finances. Posted on 9 June 2026

World Cup Warm-Up Delivers Familiar Shock: America’s Stadium Beer Prices

The 2026 World Cup has not started, and one American tradition is already dominating the away-fan experience: sticker shock with foam on top.

England’s 1-0 friendly win over New Zealand at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa offered little panic on the pitch and plenty in the concourses. Harry Kane scored the game’s only goal as Thomas Tuchel’s side, understandably heavy-legged after a long club season, edged through a low-voltage final stretch before the tournament. With players keen to avoid injuries, the football felt cautious. The beer did not.

A drinks board from the stadium spread online after supporters noticed the prices. A premium beer was listed at $18, about £13.44. A domestic beer cost $16.75, roughly £12.50. Premium cocktails were marked at $26.50, around £19.79.

For fans arriving from Europe, the numbers landed like a cynical tackle. In the United States, stadium pricing works by its own fever dream logic, and supporters already living there are generally familiar with it. Visitors are not. It also remained unclear whether VAT was included, while US tipping customs add another layer of confusion for those unused to paying extra after already paying too much.

Prices will vary by venue, but this is unlikely to be the last refreshment crisis of the tournament.
Posted on 8 June 2026

CEO Confidence Sours as Growth Slows and Risks Multiply

America’s top executives seem to have looked at the economic horizon and collectively made the face you make when you smell milk that might still be technically legal but spiritually has moved on.

The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence measure, compiled with The Business Council from 141 chief executives, fell to 47 in the second quarter from 59 in the first. Since anything below 50 signals pessimism, corporate mood has officially wandered into the basement.

Only 15% of CEOs now say the economy is better than it was six months ago, down from 39%. Meanwhile, 47% think conditions have worsened, up sharply from 8%. The next six months look no sunnier: 40% expect further deterioration, versus 13% in the prior quarter.

That gloom is spreading into their own industries too, with both current and near-term assessments weakening.

Dana M. Peterson of The Conference Board said the optimism seen in the first quarter had reversed, pushing confidence back below neutral. Recent data helps explain it. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated fourth-quarter GDP growth at an annualized 0.5%, missing the 0.7% forecast in an LSEG survey. Even though full-year 2025 growth reached 2.1%, EY-Parthenon economist Gregory Daco expects a softer 2026, citing Middle East conflict, inflation pressure, weaker real disposable income and tighter financial conditions.

Companies are reacting cautiously: 31% expect job cuts within six months, while 28% plan to add staff. Most wage gains are landing between 3% and 4%. Hiring remains difficult in some roles for 53%, and nearly two-thirds now rank cyber risk among their biggest worries, alongside geopolitics, AI, supply chains and energy.

Posted on 4 June 2026

Trump Suggests White House UFC Structure Could Be Permanent

There is something almost touching about a man looking at a temporary steel spectacle on the South Lawn of the White House and seeing Paris.

Donald Trump is brushing off complaints about the huge UFC Freedom 250 setup now rising outside the White House ahead of the June 14, 2026 event, and has floated the idea that the structure might stay long after the final fight. On TikTok, he compared the installation to the Eiffel Tower, noting that the Paris landmark was built for the 1889 World’s Fair and was originally meant to come down, before becoming permanent.

The comparison arrives as Washington adjusts to a particularly surreal construction season. The White House east wing has been demolished for a planned bunker and ballroom project, while a large arena framework is going up on the South Lawn for the UFC card. The lighting rig devised for the event, known as The Claw, has been central to UFC CEO Dana White’s plan for months: a massive overhead structure designed to light the fights without blocking views of the White House.

Inside the MMA world, this has been discussed for some time. Outside it, the sudden appearance of an enormous metal frame at the White House has landed rather differently, with some critics likening the grounds to a property overtaken by meth heads.

What once sounded like one of Trump’s passing ideas now appears very real, and possibly less temporary than advertised.

Posted on 3 June 2026

In Los Angeles, $6 Gas Still Can’t Beat the Commute

Los Angeles has responded to $6 gasoline the way Los Angeles responds to almost everything: by getting in the car anyway.

Caltrans data covering the eight weeks through April 23 found no meaningful overall drop in driving on major Los Angeles freeways after the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. The analysis tracked vehicle miles traveled on routes including Interstates 405, 10 and 5. Some segments rose by nearly 9%, others fell by almost 3%, but the broader picture barely moved.

That matters in a city where regular gas averaged $6.07 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA—almost 28% higher than a year earlier and 36% above the U.S. average.

The pattern fits decades of research showing gasoline demand in the United States is largely inelastic. A 2006 National Bureau of Economic Research paper found motorists adjusted far less during the price spikes of the 2000s than during the oil shock of the 1970s.

For many Angelenos, the math is brutal but simple. Marco Falcon, 44, said buses would take three to four times longer, and that time carries its own cost.

Public transit did edge up: LA Metro reported combined weekday bus and rail ridership in March and April rose 1.6% from a year earlier, while passenger miles increased 0.8%. New stations and network expansion may also have helped.

At near-capacity traffic levels, even a 10% reduction in vehicles can cut delays by 40% to 50%, UCLA researcher Brian Taylor noted.
Posted on 2 June 2026

As Performers Exit, Trump Moves to the Center of America’s 250th Fair

America’s 250th birthday was supposed to arrive with the reassuring clutter of a state fair: music, family attractions, exhibits, flyovers, a little nostalgia lacquered over the National Mall. Instead, The Great American State Fair has become a study in who wants to be seen and who would rather slip quietly away.

Several performers, including Bret Michaels, the Commodores, and Martina McBride, withdrew last week after concluding the event was not the nonpartisan celebration they believed they had agreed to join. McBride said on Instagram that the nature of the booking had been presented misleadingly. Michaels and others indicated similar concerns about being pulled into a larger public fight.

Now President Donald Trump is set to open the festivities himself. Freedom 250, the group behind the June event, said Saturday that Trump will personally launch the celebration on Wednesday, June 24. The fair is scheduled to run June 25 through July 10 on Washington’s National Mall.

Trump, posting on Truth Social, mocked the departing acts as overpriced, third-rate, and unwanted, floated replacing them with himself, and then suggested canceling the concert concept altogether in favor of a giant MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN rally for the semiquincentennial. One of his posts referred only to Wednesday, without a date, and the White House did not immediately resolve the mismatch.

Freedom 250 describes itself as nonpartisan, though Trump launched it last year and it is led by a former State Department appointee from his first term. Flo Rida, Fab Morvan of Milli Vanilli, and Vanilla Ice remain on the bill.

Posted on 1 June 2026